DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/29 11:48
Livestock Complex Finally Sees Some Support
The livestock complex is rolling into Thursday's afternoon fully higher and
anxiously waiting to see the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which is released
DTN Livestock Analyst
With the surprisingly strong export report for both beef and pork, the
livestock complex has traded mostly higher throughout Thursday's market.
Thursday afternoon the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released.
December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down
$4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 429.30 points.
Upon seeing the day's strong export report, the live cattle market is
rallying modestly into Thursday's afternoon. After a brutal week when crashing
commodity sales have been the market's focus, as well as the greater economic
uncertainty, seeing even the smallest essence of support is relieving to the
live cattle market. October live cattle are up $0.70 at $143.75, December live
cattle are up $0.82 at $147.07 and February live cattle are up $0.65 at
$150.82. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest from packers arise at
this point and it's likely that the majority of the week's business is done
with. With packers having bought over 116,000 head last week, they now sit on
enough inventory to let this week's market mostly pass them by. Throughout the
week, Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower
than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have sold for $143,
which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Beef net sales of
21,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (7,300 mt), China (6,000 mt)
and Japan (3,500 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.63 ($246.92) and select up $0.65
($219.86) with a movement of 85 loads (51.25 loads of choice, 15.94 loads of
select, 8.44 loads of trim and 9.77 loads of ground beef).
Even with the corn market trading steady to $0.02 higher in its nearby
contracts, the feeder cattle contracts are trading over $1.00 stronger into
Thursday's afternoon. It's helping the feeder cattle market that both the live
cattle and lean hog contracts are trending higher, but now the market will look
to its fundamental side to hopefully garnish even more support. Feeder cattle
sales have been extremely hit or miss throughout the countryside as drought
related marketing strategies are having to be implemented by ranchers as u
drought remains a prevalent factor on most operations in the West and Midwest.
September feeders are up $0.32 at $175.70, October feeders are up $1.27 at
$176.27 and November feeders are up $1.45 at $176.75.
The lean hog complex is rallying off the support found early Thursday
morning in the day's strong export report. Hopefully this positive momentum
continues to be the market's theme throughout the afternoon and the Quarterly
Hogs and Pigs report displays a bullish outlook for the upcoming quarters,
which would undoubtedly add more support to the market. October lean hogs are
up $0.80 at $90.17, December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $76.37 and February lean
hogs are up $0.65 at $80.12. It's tough saying whether or not the marekt has
established a new bottom after sinking to prices not last seen since
mid-December 2021 -- but based on how the market is trading today, slightly
stronger tones are helping the market this Thursday. Pork net sales of 34,300
mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (23,700 mt), South Korea (2,900 mt) and
China (2,000 mt).
The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are
lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.81 with a weighted
average of $88.44, ranging from $80.00 to $102.00 on 4,401 head and a five-day
rolling average of $89.38. Pork cutouts total 134.32 loads with 120.53 loads of
pork cuts and 13.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.46, $100.31.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached email@example.com
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