DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/16 11:30

   Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed

   Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
firmer with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points lower. 
The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade is mixed with crude 2.70 
lower and natural gas .11 higher. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down 33.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading back toward 
the lows on limited U.S. weather concerns. Middle East concerns are cooling for 
now, so energies are backing off while the stock market rebounds. Ethanol 
margins should hold the range with softer corn and unleaded action into midday. 
Warmer weather is expected for most through midweek with good short-term rain 
coverage through the beginning of this week. Weekly crop progress is expected 
to show slightly improved conditions with development in line with the 5-year 
average. Weekly export inspections staying strong at 1.673 million metric tons 
(mmt), keeping us at 128% of last year's pace. Basis continues to hold the 
recent range. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.45 1/2 is 
resistance with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.27 as support.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are narrowly mixed as we fade from the overnight highs and 
work to consolidate Friday's post-biodiesel-announcement gains with oil 
continuing to lead the product complex. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 lower and oil is 
3.00 to 4.00 higher. Biodiesel targets held at 3.35 billion gallons this year 
but go to 5.65 billion next year, and 5.86 billion the following year. Planting 
should be pretty well wrapped up with rains to boost emergence for many. Weekly 
crop progress is likely to show steady to slightly better conditions and 
emergence near the 5-year average with planting wrapped up except for 
double-crop acres. Basis should stabilize after most processors rolled to 
November last week before the biodiesel announcement. Weekly export inspections 
were soft at 215,803 metric tons (mt) with year-to-date pace at 111%. On the 
July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $10.52, which we pushed 
through Friday, with the recent high at $10.82 as resistance.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower with trade testing support early; there 
is harvest pressure and calmer outside market action with the cheaper dollar 
again adding support. The hard red wheat areas should start to see harvest move 
ahead as warmer temps aid maturity and readiness. Weekly crop progress is 
expected to show us just behind the 5-year average with steady conditions 
otherwise. Spring wheat should continue to catch up as we warm back up with 
good rain potential in the short term, which should boost conditions on the 
weekly report with average development pace holding. MATIF wheat is weaker with 
the euro firming ahead of harvest. Weekly export inspections were OK at 388,752 
mt with year-to-date pace at 83% a week and half into the new-crop year. On the 
KC July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.33, which we tested 
this morning, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $5.50 the next round up.

   **

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   **

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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